Welcome to the world of sports betting, where strategy meets mathematics! Today, we’re diving into a topic that often confuses bettors: what to do about highly-correlated bets. If you’ve been betting for a while, you might have noticed that certain games generate a cluster of betting opportunities. This is especially true when the market is unclear and various books have differing opinions on what the odds should be.
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Identifying Correlated Bets
Correlated bets occur when different wagers on the same game influence each other. For example, in a Major League Baseball game, you might encounter:
- First inning totals
- First half totals
- Full game totals
- Team totals
- First three innings totals
Each of these bets can have different levels of positive expected value (EV), which means they can vary in how likely they are to be profitable. The question then becomes: at what point should you be cautious about placing multiple correlated bets?
Managing Correlated Bets
In a recent live stream, we discussed how to handle correlated bets effectively. While these bets may be related, they are not identical. Here’s how to think about it:
- Although you may win some and lose others, each bet still has its own EV.
- If you’re placing a variety of bets with positive EV, you’re diversifying your risk.
- Using confidence-based weighting helps reduce your overall risk of ruin.
For example, if you’re looking at a $91 bet instead of a Kelly criterion bet of $138, you can afford to spread your bets across different outcomes, which ultimately helps manage variance.
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Real-World Example: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Let’s look at a practical example. Consider a game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks. Here are some of the bets I placed:
- First inning total: under 0.5
- Run line: Tampa Bay Rays -2.5
- Total runs: over 11
These bets are all positive EV plays, and while they may be correlated, they allow us to capitalize on different aspects of the game. The key is to find where the positive EV opportunities lie and act on them.
Risk Management and Bankroll Growth
As your bankroll grows, you may find that you want to place more bets. This can lead to a situation where having correlated bets becomes advantageous. When you’re confident in the math, you can afford to take on more correlated bets because your bankroll justifies it. However, you must always be aware of how much you’re betting and the level of risk involved.
The Importance of Math in Betting
All of this boils down to understanding the math behind your bets. You don’t start with the sports or the bets; you start with the mathematical analysis. This is why I advocate for using tools like OddsJam, which offers comprehensive odds comparison tools and betting strategies.
When you see a market outlier, it’s your opportunity to make a wager. Positive EV betting is about identifying these discrepancies and capitalizing on them. Remember, this approach is much more akin to financial market trading than simply following sports trivia.
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Final Thoughts
To wrap up, managing correlated bets is all about understanding the risk involved and leveraging positive EV opportunities. If you’re serious about making money through sports betting, focus on the mathematics and not on the myths. Stay away from the touts and snake oil salespeople, and instead, equip yourself with knowledge and tools to grow your bankroll.
If you want to dive deeper into this topic, check out our playlists on becoming a sharp sports bettor and understanding the 8rain Station way. Happy betting!