This past football season, sportsbooks were victims of their own greed, and it was glorious. Welcome to the advantage. I’m maturing bets, and I use my brain to make bets. This is a big middle finger to sports books who I believe go way too far in taking advantage of casual bettors. So here’s what’s going on.
Massive Financial Losses
FanDuel recently announced that they took a $370 million hit in this past NFL season because the public won. DraftKings also reported a $250 million headwind during the early part of the NFL season. This is a lot of money, and the reason for this is simple: overs and favorites were winning a lot more than they usually do.
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The Sharps vs. The Public
It’s common knowledge in the sharp sports betting community that we love unders and underdogs. We thrive on things not happening. While some weekends may see Vegas losing, it’s fairly unprecedented for the entirety of the regular NFL season to be so lopsided that the public overall won. Part of the reason for this is that not only were favorites and overs winning more frequently, but they were also winning collectively at the same time.
Exploitative Practices of Sportsbooks
Casual bettors love parlays, especially money line parlays on a bunch of favorites, which can create exponential returns when many of them come home. This year, sportsbooks’ strategies to capitalize on casual bettors backfired spectacularly. They forgot that they are supposed to be sportsbooks that manage risk.
Greed and Mismanagement
These books got greedy, fleecing casual bettors. They tried to limit payouts on “unders” and focused on making overs more attractive. This skewed the market and made the unders look better. But they limited the payouts on those bets, exposing themselves to massive losses when overs started winning.
Consequences of Bad Practices
FanDuel and DraftKings lost hundreds of millions due to their mismanagement. They should have implemented better risk management strategies before hitting that number. Instead, they were too busy trying to fleece casual bettors.
What’s Next for Sportsbooks?
As a sharp bettor, I managed to profit this NFL season because I could navigate the limits they placed. However, I worry about the future. Sportsbooks will likely double down on their strategies, making overs worse and unders more appealing. This is a great time to become a sharper sports bettor.
Understanding the Market
What these sportsbooks need to realize is that they should be taking action from sharp bettors, not limiting them. They could benefit from a more balanced approach to betting. The current state of affairs means they are likely to lose more money in the future if they don’t change their ways.
Education is Key
For casual bettors who won this year, it’s essential to understand the risks involved in sports betting. If you’re one of those lucky bettors who took money from FanDuel or DraftKings, be careful. It’s easy to get caught in a cycle of problem gambling. Education is the best tool to avoid falling into that trap.
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Final Thoughts
This video was less about a specific strategy and more about current events in sports betting. It’s crucial for bettors to take a more logical and data-driven approach to betting rather than an emotional one. If you want to learn more about sports betting, check out 8rain Station for powerful analytics software designed to help you beat the books.
For more tips and strategies, consider joining the 8rain Station Discord community, where sharp sports bettors gather to learn from one another.
Until next time, save the units for the pros, and do your betting like the pros!